International Sugar Journal

A preliminary assessment of mid-century climate change impacts on sugarcane production in South Africa [Full subscriber]

Abstract Previous studies mostly report positive impacts of climate change on sugarcane yields in South Africa (SA). Predictions vary considerably, however, and the limitations in methodologies and assumptions in these studies make it difficult to quantify impacts reliably at regional and industry scales. The objective of this study was to provide a robust indication of climate change impacts on the SA sugar industry for the period 2040-2070 under a likely emissions scenario (571 ppm atmospheric CO2), using methods based on the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) protocol. Daily weather records for baseline (1980-2010) and future periods were prepared…

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